Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 2.069799 2.211296 2.361566 2.533707 2.726285 2.936072 3.183224
2025-11-23 1.854747 2.049120 2.266947 2.531611 2.847923 3.218365 3.691988
2025-11-30 1.731168 1.956855 2.219390 2.552177 2.970051 3.487909 4.196106
2025-12-07 1.611004 1.851045 2.137920 2.513175 3.002508 3.636654 4.553363
2025-12-14 1.503121 1.748813 2.048621 2.450617 2.990993 3.717661 4.819225
2025-12-21 1.425683 1.677337 1.990234 2.419380 3.012832 3.839555 5.152873
2025-12-28 1.383482 1.646420 1.979740 2.447881 3.115181 4.081457 5.700097
2026-01-04 1.332936 1.601029 1.946290 2.440819 3.163965 4.246643 6.148110
2026-01-11 1.301975 1.578908 1.941470 2.471666 3.268538 4.506185 6.799858
2026-01-18 1.262350 1.542822 1.914984 2.468644 3.320211 4.685200 7.338683
2026-01-25 1.240288 1.528910 1.917628 2.507155 3.438044 4.986012 8.173554
2026-02-01 1.199452 1.487300 1.878978 2.481024 3.449541 5.103393 8.658538
2026-02-08 1.153855 1.438347 1.829063 2.437011 3.431922 5.173558 9.075383
2026-02-15 1.123186 1.409004 1.805933 2.432767 3.480376 5.372047 9.841733
2026-02-22 1.101576 1.391296 1.798495 2.451993 3.569797 5.660026 10.916191
2026-03-01 1.066023 1.352284 1.757750 2.415343 3.557515 5.744138 11.486302
2026-03-08 1.026756 1.306577 1.705150 2.356522 3.500673 5.729702 11.779705
2026-03-15 0.997649 1.274545 1.671733 2.327132 3.494924 5.821808 12.418763
2026-03-22 0.984769 1.265520 1.672508 2.353948 3.594996 6.156172 13.947670
2026-03-29 0.964285 1.244588 1.654111 2.347305 3.630798 6.352188 15.113081
2026-04-05 0.953534 1.237570 1.656730 2.376319 3.737881 6.731173 17.160352
2026-04-12 0.935867 1.219635 1.641524 2.373477 3.781325 6.964035 18.785053
2026-04-19 0.927937 1.215964 1.648485 2.409684 3.907088 7.427366 21.794011